Projection of HIV infections in India: An alternative to back-calculation
نویسنده
چکیده
Short-term projections of HIV/AIDS incidence are critical for assessing future healthcare needs of the society. This article reviews the back-calculation method as a means to reconstruct past pattern of HIV counts and to estimate future AIDS incidence. The major sources of uncertainties and difficulties in application of this method to AIDS data in India are pointed out. A methodology built around HIV seropositivity rate and sizes of different groups is proposed as an alternative to back-calculation. An illustration is provided for Indian data and projections are obtained for a few selected years.
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